Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd30d…4f6d crypto 401 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2261 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$74 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%178W / 265L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2260.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2261 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 443 -20.6% -28.2% 40% 34% -11.8%
≤30d 443 -20.6% -28.2% 40% 34% -11.8%
≤90d 443 -20.6% -28.2% 40% 34% -11.8%
all 443 -20.6% -28.2% 40% 34% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2260.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 34% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 28% -20.3%
15% -41.3% 22% -28.0%
20% -47.1% 16% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$15 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses178 / 265
Open positions2
Markets (closed)443 / 401
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2260.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 20¢ 14¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-32%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 170 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 21 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$6 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $34 −$18 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $121 +$15 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 21 $24 −$19 -78%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $82 +$22 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $9 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $7 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $26 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $4 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $0 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 14m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.74 · official $33.06 · 3500 history records