Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd30c…614c sports 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$556 (-12%) realized −$558 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%18W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$117
7 days+$413
14 days+$413
30 days+$413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$200
crypto 19% −$862
other 10% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +24.7% +12.9% 50% 50% +28.9%
≤30d 12 +24.7% +12.9% 50% 50% +28.9%
≤90d 12 +24.7% +12.9% 50% 50% +28.9%
all 40 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 45% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 45% -20.9%
10% -17.5% 45% -28.5%
15% -25.5% 40% -35.4%
20% -32.8% 32% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$92 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized−$558
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses18 / 22
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage208d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 100¢ $50 $102 +$52 (+104%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 12¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$40 +79%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$194 +542%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$12 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 +$182 +90%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$126 +42%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 12 $648 −$627 -97%
Eagles vs. Chargers Dec 09 $326 −$285 -88%
Blue Jackets vs. Capitals Dec 08 $50 −$21 -42%
Texans vs. Chiefs Dec 07 $100 $0 -0%
Seahawks vs. Falcons Dec 07 $100 +$30 +30%
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5) Dec 07 $50 +$48 +96%
Spread: Seahawks (-6.5) Dec 07 $75 −$12 -16%
Spread: Buccaneers (-8.5) Dec 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Red Wings vs. Kraken Dec 07 $50 +$46 +92%
Kings vs. Heat Dec 07 $36 +$14 +39%
Georgia vs. Alabama Dec 07 $50 +$44 +88%
Ohio State vs. Indiana Dec 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Wild vs. Canucks Dec 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Ohio State (-4.5) Dec 06 $47 −$1 -2%
Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan Dec 06 $209 +$137 +65%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Texas Tech Red Raiders (-13.5) Dec 06 $47 −$25 -53%
BYU vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Dec 06 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $70 −$19 -28%
Will Villarreal win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $25 +$18 +72%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Dec 06 $25 +$25 +100%
North Texas vs. Tulane Dec 06 $166 +$138 +83%
Spread: James Madison (-23.5) Dec 06 $150 +$132 +88%
76ers vs. Bucks Dec 06 $50 +$50 +100%
Lakers vs. Celtics Dec 06 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Dec 05 $200 −$200 -100%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 05 $500 +$117 +23%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 11h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $51 11h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $31 35h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $51 35h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $36 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 71¢ $30 37h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under $48 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under $0 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $203 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $51 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 186d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 76¢ $20 186d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 59¢ $648 187d
Eagles vs. Chargers SELL Eagles 56¢ $1 190d
Eagles vs. Chargers SELL Eagles 56¢ $40 190d
Eagles vs. Chargers BUY Eagles 57¢ $114 190d
Eagles vs. Chargers BUY Eagles 56¢ $112 190d
Eagles vs. Chargers BUY Eagles 52¢ $100 190d
Blue Jackets vs. Capitals SELL Blue Jackets 22¢ $29 191d
Blue Jackets vs. Capitals BUY Blue Jackets 37¢ $50 191d
Texans vs. Chiefs SELL Chiefs 65¢ $100 191d
Seahawks vs. Falcons SELL Seahawks 100¢ $130 191d
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5) SELL Dolphins 100¢ $98 191d
Seahawks vs. Falcons BUY Seahawks 77¢ $100 191d
Spread: Seahawks (-6.5) SELL Seahawks 42¢ $26 191d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.20 · official $102.20 (match) · 98 history records