Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D3 0xd30a…70eb sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 416d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$165 (+12%) realized +$166 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate46%31W / 36L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days−$58
14 days−$28
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$189
other 26% −$5
crypto 11% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -42.0% -47.5% 31% 29% -16.3%
≤30d 57 -8.9% -17.6% 40% 39% -8.5%
≤90d 59 -7.1% -16.0% 42% 41% -5.6%
all 67 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 40% +6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 40% +6.7%
10% -19.2% 36% -3.5%
15% -27.0% 31% -12.8%
20% -34.2% 24% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$8 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized+$166
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses31 / 36
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 82
History coverage416d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $30 $28 −$1 (-4%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O Jun 28 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 −$15 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $111 +$76 +68%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$9 +90%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $55 +$25 +46%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: C Jun 27 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $3 $0 +12%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? A Jun 27 $4 +$11 +300%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $74 +$14 +19%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $76 +$35 +47%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $48 −$48 -99%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs G2 Esports (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Jun 25 $21 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 2 - 2 Manchester City FC? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 2 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 4 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 3 - 3 Manchester City FC? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 2 Manchester City FC? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 0 - 3 Manchester City FC? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 0 - 1 Manchester City FC? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 2 - 3 Manchester City FC? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 3 Manchester City FC? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 3 Club Atlético de Madrid? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? Jun 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Eyüpspor end in a draw? Jun 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 2 Club Atlético de Madrid? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $2 +$4 +158%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $27 +$7 +27%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $7 +$4 +52%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 +$18 +36%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $7 $0 -6%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$5 +50%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 +$2 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 SELL Over 65¢ $19 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $40 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? AND BUY 53¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? AND Wil BUY 42¢ $7 2h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? A BUY 41¢ $10 2h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 AND South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O BUY 61¢ $10 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 37h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $55 46h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-3.5) AND Spread: Croati BUY 19¢ $3 47h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: C SELL 10¢ $2 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 47h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: England (-2.5) AND Spread: C BUY 11¢ $3 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $81 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? A SELL 94¢ $15 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? A BUY 23¢ $4 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $88 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $110 2d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 3 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 67¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $74 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $76 2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score AND Will Sweden win on BUY 37¢ $3 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $48 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.22 · official $84.86 · 157 history records