Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:41:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd30a…e9f5 other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$500 (+0%) realized +$504 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate94%102W / 6L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,837per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$8,962now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$254
crypto 24% +$233
sports 1% +$3
politics 1% +$3
world 0% +$1
tech 0% −$4
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 34 +2.6% -7.1% 100% 3% -9.2%
all 108 +2.3% -7.4% 94% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 7% -9.3%
10% -16.3% 6% -18.0%
15% -24.4% 5% -25.9%
20% -31.8% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 39% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$2,987) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×38.4 per $1 lost it wins $38.4
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$8,962
Realized+$504
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses102 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)108 / 109
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,837
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $8,966 $8,962 −$4 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 24 $470 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 24 $1,905 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $55 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 29 $404 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $974 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 29 $3,472 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 29 $3,575 +$3 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 23 $205 +$166 +81%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $5,375 +$27 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $7,948 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 17 $594 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 15 $1,847 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $1,983 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $4,891 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $4,874 +$5 +0%
Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 06 $6,711 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 04 $8,695 +$8 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 01 $8,690 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 30 $709 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $1,018 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $1,970 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 30 $3,864 +$8 +0%
Will BNB dip to $200 in March? Apr 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 25 $998 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 25 $996 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 28 to March 30, 2026? Apr 25 $2,200 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026? Apr 25 $4,380 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Mar 29 $4,376 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 26? Mar 28 $246 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $822 +$2 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 20 to March Mar 28 $1,128 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 27 $997 +$3 +0%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 27 $5,566 +$6 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 24 $2,987 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $3,573 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $1,139 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 13? Mar 13 $5,414 +$5 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Mar 13 $999 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 13 $26 +$17 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 9? Mar 10 $6,523 +$7 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 March 2-8? Mar 09 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 08 $2,276 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Mar 08 $4,219 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026? Mar 08 $997 +$3 +0%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 07 $980 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 07 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 07 $2,230 +$4 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8,967 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,905 25d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $974 29d
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 29d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $404 29d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $470 31d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,472 31d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $257 31d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,575 33d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $114 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,002 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,961.88 · official $8,961.88 (match) · 333 history records