Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:22:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D3 0xd309…dc1b sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$407 (-4%) realized −$358 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%20W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$153est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,663
7 days−$2,250
14 days−$2,250
30 days−$2,333
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$545
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -52.3% -56.8% 20% 20% -49.6%
≤30d 27 -50.6% -55.3% 22% 22% -47.2%
≤90d 39 -13.6% -21.9% 44% 44% -21.6%
all 42 -6.7% -15.6% 48% 48% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 48% -14.9%
10% -23.7% 45% -23.0%
15% -31.0% 40% -30.5%
20% -37.8% 36% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$141 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$358
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses20 / 22
Est. fees paid−$153
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage191d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 55¢ 42¢ $200 $151 −$49 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $203 +$85 +42%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $87 −$87 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Jun 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Jun 20 $83 −$83 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffs Jun 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $181 −$181 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $84 −$84 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - BLAST Slam China Closed Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $145 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $262 −$262 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playof Jun 20 $498 −$498 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Jun 20 $627 −$627 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $534 −$10 -2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $174 −$15 -9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $851 −$79 -9%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $152 +$82 +54%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $137 +$85 +62%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $59 +$78 +134%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $270 +$201 +74%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $61 −$32 -54%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 03 $318 +$87 +27%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $196 −$170 -87%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner May 17 $164 −$157 -96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $140 +$24 +17%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 17 $142 +$76 +54%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 19 $330 +$497 +150%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $167 +$45 +27%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $86 +$71 +82%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 16 $61 +$92 +151%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Apr 15 $294 +$174 +59%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 14 $92 +$80 +86%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $79 +$159 +201%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex - Game 3 Winner Mar 29 $100 +$66 +66%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $472 +$175 +37%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Mar 22 $349 +$213 +61%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Feb 28 $27 +$19 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Dec 11 $253 +$303 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 55¢ $203 37m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 67¢ $288 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 46¢ $203 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 9¢ $33 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 53¢ $196 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 40¢ $295 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 30¢ $273 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 42¢ $261 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Spirit 55¢ $446 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $495 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 41¢ $262 8h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 39¢ $159 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 41¢ $149 24h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 42¢ $25 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 70¢ $771 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $851 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 88¢ $234 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $152 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $221 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $137 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Resilience 100¢ $137 2d
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 42¢ $59 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $200 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Bilibili Gaming 89¢ $471 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 50¢ $242 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $26 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 51¢ $2 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 15¢ $28 6d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 31¢ $61 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 72¢ $181 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.91 · official $150.91 (match) · 110 history records