Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:20:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D3 0xd309…001d other 7 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$17
crypto 25% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.6% -26.3% 43% 43% -12.6%
≤30d 7 -18.6% -26.3% 43% 43% -12.6%
≤90d 7 -18.6% -26.3% 43% 43% -12.6%
all 7 -18.6% -26.3% 43% 43% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.3% 43% -12.6%
10% -33.4% 43% -21.0%
15% -39.8% 43% -28.6%
20% -45.7% 29% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$9 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage4d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$17 +85%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$7 +142%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 94¢ $38 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 89¢ $12 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records