Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:11:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd309…d769
other · 93 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$217 -28%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$217 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$217
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses34 / 59
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)93 / 93
History coverage107d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 0 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$22
14 days−$141
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$44 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $43 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $35 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $24 +$11 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$7 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +47%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $10 +$5 +51%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 13 $11 −$8 -71%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $3 +$4 +111%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the US add at least 200k jobs in May? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $5 −$2 -38%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.7M and 6.8M in April? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.9M and 7.0M in April? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.8M and 6.9M in April? Jun 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.6M and 6.7M in April? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 6.5M and 6.6M in April? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 50.0 and 50.9 in May? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 51.0 and 51.9 in May? Jun 02 $13 −$13 -100%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in May? Jun 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in May? Jun 01 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $66 +$29 +44%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 31 $37 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 31 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 31 $8 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 31 $8 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $3 +$2 +56%
Will Victoria's Secret (VSCO) beat quarterly earnings? May 31 $3 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) beat quarterly earnings? May 31 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 31 $4 −$2 -44%
Will Dollar General (DG) beat quarterly earnings? May 31 $4 −$1 -36%
Will lululemon athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings? May 31 $4 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 31 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 31 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 31 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 31 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 31 $6 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 52% −$1
other 32% −$163
finance 7% −$12
world 6% −$35
sports 2% +$4
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 3¢ $2 22h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 81¢ $2 22h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 66¢ $3 23h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 4¢ $3 23h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 62¢ $7 23h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 34¢ $7 23h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 15¢ $3 28h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.9% -13.0% 57% 50% -17.8%
≤30d 90 -27.8% -34.6% 38% 30% -30.8%
≤90d 90 -27.8% -34.6% 38% 30% -30.8%
all 93 -28.9% -35.7% 37% 29% -34.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 29% -34.6%
10% -41.8% 25% -40.9%
15% -47.5% 18% -46.6%
20% -52.6% 10% -51.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 264 history records