Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd306…463d
sports · 1219 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$28,491 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$28,519 · open +$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$755
Realized−$28,519
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses897 / 558
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$1,273
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1455 / 1219
History coverage29d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day93.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 16 History 1455 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20,575
7 days−$22,456
14 days−$28,033
30 days−$28,519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 83¢ 100¢ $334 $401 +$67 (+20%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 74¢ 84¢ $90 $102 +$12 (+13%)
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Solary 99¢ 100¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs UCAM Esports Club 84¢ 100¢ $45 $54 +$9 (+19%)
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner UCAM Esports Club 95¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 88¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner FURIA 74¢ 100¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+35%)
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner UCAM Esports Club 81¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+23%)
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 93¢ 91¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 74¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Spirit 66¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) New York Yankees 62¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Vitality 70¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Solary 85¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Weibo Gaming Youth Team 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Winner EDward Gaming Youth Team 89¢ 0¢ $456 $0 −$456 (-100%)
1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Lakers 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 Over 52¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
FC Bayern München leading at halftime? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA 67¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$140 (-100%)
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Over 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 58¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner JD Gaming 64¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
1H Spread: Rockets (-3.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 13 $476 −$476 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Jun 13 $270 −$270 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 13 $313 −$313 -100%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
Oxford United FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 end in a draw? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 13 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $69 −$69 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Ruiz vs Medvedev Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs SU Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $143 −$143 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Sinner vs. Fils: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Magic (-1.5) Jun 13 $266 −$266 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-05-02? Jun 13 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 13 $95 −$95 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime? Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $330 −$330 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 13 $246 −$246 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-04-21? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO1) - Prime League Jun 13 $155 −$155 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $150 −$150 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Jun 13 $89 −$89 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 13 $409 −$409 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Team Spirit (+1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Quali Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% −$9,833
other 26% +$1,804
world 2% +$1,060
crypto 1% −$558
politics 0% +$14
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $5 32m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $5 1h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY UCAM Esports Club 87¢ $40 1h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 4 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 81¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $10 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 66¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY FURIA 74¢ $91 1h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 99¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 74¢ $10 1h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner BUY Solary 95¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 74¢ $5 1h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY UCAM Esports Club 64¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 98¢ $94 1h
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 3 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 95¢ $20 1h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 86¢ $30 2h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Team Heretics Academy 16¢ $28 2h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 81¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 88¢ $5 2h
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 99¢ $5 2h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 97¢ $5 2h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 97¢ $5 2h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 30¢ $5 2h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 35¢ $2 2h
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY G2 NORD 6¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 92¢ $10 3h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 68¢ $114 3h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 64¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 76¢ $20 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 76¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 60¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 579 -44.7% -50.0% 44% 25% -36.0%
≤30d 1455 -20.8% -28.4% 62% 39% -17.9%
≤90d 1455 -20.8% -28.4% 62% 39% -17.9%
all 1455 -20.8% -28.4% 62% 39% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover93.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.4% 39% -17.9%
10% ← realistic here -35.2% 22% -25.8%
15% -41.5% 13% -33.0%
20% -47.2% 6% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $754.79 · official $754.80 (match) · 3500 history records