Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd304…9dc7 crypto 1041 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$108 (+0%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate79%822W / 219L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$21
14 days−$146
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 148 -0.0% -9.6% 86% 1% -9.0%
≤30d 914 -2.3% -11.6% 80% 4% -8.9%
≤90d 1041 -2.2% -11.5% 79% 4% -8.9%
all 1041 -2.2% -11.5% 79% 4% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 4% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 1% -17.6%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.8% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses822 / 219
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1041 / 1041
History coverage36d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1041 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $59 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $58 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $59 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $57 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $99 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $55 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $58 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $57 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $59 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2552 history records