Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:52:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D3 0xd304…3ed2 sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$247 (+7%) realized +$473 · open −$226
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%17W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$393
other 6% −$200
world 1% −$50
crypto 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +20.3% +8.8% 59% 59% +1.5%
≤30d 29 +20.3% +8.8% 59% 59% +1.5%
≤90d 29 +20.3% +8.8% 59% 59% +1.5%
all 29 +20.3% +8.8% 59% 59% +1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.8% 59% +1.5%
10% -1.6% 59% -8.2%
15% -11.1% 59% -17.0%
20% -19.8% 55% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +29% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$107 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$473
Unrealized−$226
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses17 / 12
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions4
Markets (closed)29 / 33
History coverage5d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 55¢ 89¢ $100 $162 +$62 (+62%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 15¢ $125 $37 −$88 (-71%)
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Paper Rex 47¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 50¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $102 +$111 +109%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $124 +$62 +50%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $203 +$154 +76%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $152 +$144 +94%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 19 $122 −$104 -86%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $127 +$101 +79%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $132 +$124 +94%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $122 −$120 -98%
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 18 $111 +$63 +56%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $142 −$140 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $127 +$128 +101%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $127 +$139 +109%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $142 +$132 +93%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $127 +$89 +70%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $51 +$68 +134%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $103 +$97 +93%
Nottingham 2: Alastair Gray vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $127 −$17 -13%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$27 +129%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $30 +$19 +62%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $102 +$99 +97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $51 +$121 +237%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $127 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $213 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $101 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 47¢ $102 3h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 47¢ $102 4h
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 66¢ $124 4h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $357 5h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 50¢ $100 5h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $203 10h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Over $18 14h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $152 14h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Over 53¢ $122 16h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $127 18h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $102 18h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 26h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova SELL Madison Keys 100¢ $256 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $122 28h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 49¢ $20 31h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova BUY Madison Keys 51¢ $112 35h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 61¢ $142 35h
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 63¢ $111 35h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $127 41h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 37¢ $51 2d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $266 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 42¢ $102 2d
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 47¢ $25 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 3d
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 51¢ $142 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.79 · official $198.79 (match) · 58 history records