Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:01:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd302…b782
crypto · 324 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$39 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$27 · open −$13
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$402
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses230 / 27
Open positions67
Markets (closed)257 / 324
History coverage281d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 67 History 257 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$4
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tesla be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $17 $6 −$11 (-64%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 10? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 9? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $9 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 7? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 6? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $9 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on June 5? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 5? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 5? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 54% −$5
tech 17% +$8
other 17% −$14
politics 5% −$26
world 3% −$3
economics 2% −$3
culture 1% +$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 95¢ $5 1h
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C BUY Yes 96¢ $5 1h
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 83¢ $4 1h
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $4 1h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 10h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 10h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 10h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 10h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $10 10h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $9 10h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 10h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 10h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 10h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 10h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 10h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -1.4% -10.8% 98% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 137 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 1% -9.6%
≤90d 183 -0.3% -9.8% 97% 3% -9.8%
all 257 +0.2% -9.4% 89% 11% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 11% -10.7%
10% -18.0% 8% -19.3%
15% -26.0% 5% -27.1%
20% -33.2% 4% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $401.75 · official $401.76 (match) · 786 history records