Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd300…285c crypto 198 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$235 (-9%) realized −$234 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate43%81W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$40
14 days+$38
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$90
other 7% −$8
weather 4% −$38
sports 3% −$12
politics 2% −$25
tech 1% −$35
world 1% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +9.9% -0.6% 53% 51% +5.0%
≤30d 108 -1.1% -10.5% 51% 46% -4.0%
≤90d 188 -11.4% -19.8% 43% 37% -17.2%
all 188 -11.4% -19.8% 43% 37% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 37% -17.2%
10% -27.5% 31% -25.1%
15% -34.5% 28% -32.4%
20% -40.9% 24% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$234
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses81 / 107
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)188 / 198
History coverage58d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 84¢ 82¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$15 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$15 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 +$8 +275%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 +$3 +19%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $6 +$1 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $3 +$1 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +55%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4 +$2 +52%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$3 +325%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$9 +874%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $14 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $31 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 6h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 6h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 6h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 6h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 6h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 28h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 28h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.27 · official $27.27 (match) · 362 history records