Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2ff…906c sports 312 markets active 4d ago coverage 399d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,856 (-9%) realized −$9,856 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate54%167W / 145L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$355per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$1,228est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7,239
14 days−$3,525
30 days−$9,138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$8,872
politics 0% $0
other 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$43
economics 0% −$1
world 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -20.3% -27.9% 46% 44% -34.5%
≤30d 245 -2.6% -11.9% 58% 56% -17.7%
≤90d 257 +2.0% -7.8% 57% 54% -17.0%
all 312 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 49% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 49% -17.0%
10% -17.7% 45% -25.0%
15% -25.6% 37% -32.2%
20% -32.9% 29% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$551) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$214 vs −$315 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

399d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9,856
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses167 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,228
Open positions0
Markets (closed)312 / 312
History coverage399d
Avg bet$355
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 312 Trades
no open positions (107 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,185 +$315 +27%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,314 +$462 +35%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$5 +59%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $465 −$465 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,520 +$480 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $487 −$487 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $604 −$604 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $520 −$520 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,781 +$219 +12%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,509 −$1,509 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,660 −$1,660 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $595 −$595 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $280 −$280 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,120 +$880 +79%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $980 +$1,020 +104%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $780 −$780 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,320 −$1,320 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 12 $390 −$390 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $588 +$426 +72%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $570 +$570 +100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $960 −$960 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $396 −$396 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,251 −$1,251 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $675 −$675 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +19%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $5 +$1 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $113 −$103 -91%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $710 +$290 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $649 +$350 +54%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $240 +$684 +285%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $327 +$301 +92%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $440 +$560 +127%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $410 +$590 +144%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $610 −$610 -100%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $470 +$530 +113%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $620 +$320 +52%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $509 −$509 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $580 +$420 +72%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs BIG (+1.5) Jun 08 $740 +$260 +35%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $680 +$320 +47%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $610 +$390 +64%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $690 +$310 +45%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $438 +$562 +128%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $577 +$423 +73%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $520 −$520 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Heretics Academy 49¢ $465 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 79¢ $45 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 2 Winner BUY Solary 79¢ $1,140 4d
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 74¢ $1,314 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $2 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $156 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $4 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $27 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 50¢ $290 4d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 69¢ $604 4d
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 1 Winner BUY Solary 63¢ $8 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $6 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $1 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $1,464 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $48 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 76¢ $1 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 26¢ $135 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 26¢ $385 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 71¢ $19 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 71¢ $7 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 71¢ $603 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 79¢ $880 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $1,549 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $6 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $6 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $88 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $6 4d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 83¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1846 history records