Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:16:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D2 0xd2ff…d094 crypto 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$204 (-15%) realized −$174 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%13W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$129
14 days+$129
30 days+$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$249
world 30% +$48
culture 9% −$19
other 5% −$35
politics 3% −$24
tech 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-61.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +612.9% +545.0% 100% 100% +545.0%
≤30d 1 +612.9% +545.0% 100% 100% +545.0%
≤90d 1 +612.9% +545.0% 100% 100% +545.0%
all 78 -57.8% -61.9% 17% 17% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.9% 17% -30.7%
10% -65.5% 17% -37.3%
15% -68.8% 14% -43.4%
20% -71.9% 12% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +613% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -64% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$10 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses13 / 65
Open positions4
Markets (closed)78 / 82
History coverage157d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 18¢ 6¢ $35 $11 −$24 (-68%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 12¢ 4¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $21 +$129 +613%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? Mar 08 $58 −$58 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Feb 28 $100 +$108 +108%
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? Feb 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? Jan 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Jan 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with urine? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jan 26 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 25 $24 −$24 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 25 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 18 $30 −$30 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Jan 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? Jan 15 $120 −$19 -16%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)? Jan 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Cellular outage on Jan 14 caused by a hack? Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $26 +$73 +285%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Jan 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 13 $28 −$28 -99%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 13 $12 +$10 +86%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jan 13 $25 +$11 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 13 $30 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jan 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jan 12 $24 −$24 -99%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 12 $80 −$16 -21%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jan 12 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 12 $47 −$10 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jan 12 $25 +$13 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jan 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 12 $50 +$12 +24%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 12 $30 +$15 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 12 $19 −$15 -78%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jan 12 $2 +$5 +267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jan 12 $30 +$21 +70%
Solana Up or Down - January 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jan 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $30 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 15d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6? BUY Yes 20¢ $58 100d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $208 108d
US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 133d
Minneapolis Border Patrol shooter charged? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 139d
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 140d
Was Ilhan Omar sprayed with urine? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 140d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 141d
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 141d
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 142d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $24 143d
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 143d
US strikes Iran by January 25, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 144d
Solana Up or Down - January 22, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 145d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 148d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 148d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 149d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 149d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 150d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 150d
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 150d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 150d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $30 152d
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? BUY No 13¢ $19 152d
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? SELL Yes 85¢ $72 152d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 152d
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize? SELL Yes 60¢ $48 152d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.69 · official $46.95 (match) · 148 history records