Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2fe…6ec5 world 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate33%25W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$5
14 days+$2
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$16
politics 23% $0
other 16% +$4
sports 5% −$14
crypto 2% +$3
finance 1% +$1
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +252.9% +219.3% 38% 25% -8.3%
≤30d 26 +77.4% +60.5% 31% 15% -8.8%
≤90d 67 +30.2% +17.8% 31% 7% -9.0%
all 76 +24.9% +13.0% 33% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 11% -9.3%
10% +2.2% 7% -18.0%
15% -7.7% 5% -25.9%
20% -16.7% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +54% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses25 / 51
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)76 / 78
History coverage520d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $104 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $12 +$6 +55%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $54 −$4 -8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $49 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $49 +$5 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $78 −$3 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $81 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $39 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $226 −$2 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $182 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $58 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $85 −$2 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $94 +$10 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $43 +$5 +12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 -12%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $52 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $15 −$3 -20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $81 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 18 $14 +$3 +21%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $41 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $23 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $13 $0 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $37 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $82 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 08 $79 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $38 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $56 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $56 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $49 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $49 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 47¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $18 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $43 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $6 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $49 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $22 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $29 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $49 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $12 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 43¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.32 · official $0.00 (match) · 328 history records