Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:02:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2fc…20bb weather 369 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$124 (+2%) realized +$103 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate87%320W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$71
14 days+$69
30 days+$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$22
weather 31% −$50
other 13% +$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -2.2% -11.5% 73% 63% -7.6%
≤30d 314 -0.8% -10.2% 88% 26% -9.0%
≤90d 366 -2.1% -11.5% 87% 25% -9.4%
all 366 -2.1% -11.5% 87% 25% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 25% -9.4%
10% -19.9% 15% -18.1%
15% -27.7% 9% -26.0%
20% -34.8% 5% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses320 / 46
Open positions3
Markets (closed)366 / 369
History coverage33d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 366 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET Down 74¢ 100¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 29? No 84¢ 98¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? No 45¢ 90¢ $3 $5 +$3 (+99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$19 +38%
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$23 +45%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET Jun 29 $50 +$6 +12%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$21 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET Jun 29 $51 −$51 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 1AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$33 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12AM ET Jun 29 $51 +$18 +35%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$17 +34%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$23 +45%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$19 +37%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$31 +60%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3PM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$52 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$24 +47%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$29 +56%
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 7AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$9 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 6AM ET Jun 28 $50 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5AM ET Jun 28 $146 +$27 +19%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 4AM ET Jun 28 $163 −$163 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3AM ET Jun 28 $155 +$99 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET Jun 28 $173 −$173 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12AM ET Jun 28 $106 +$14 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11PM ET Jun 28 $165 +$46 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 10PM ET Jun 28 $161 +$34 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9PM ET Jun 28 $154 +$87 +56%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 8PM ET Jun 28 $102 +$18 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET Jun 27 $144 +$84 +58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET Jun 27 $136 +$66 +48%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET Jun 27 $129 +$76 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 11AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$5 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 7AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$1 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 6AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$2 +40%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 5AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 4AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 3AM ET Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 2PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 12PM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $51 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 8AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 29? BUY No 84¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 45¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 4AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 3AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $51 8h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 1AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 11PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $51 11h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 12h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 9PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $51 13h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $51 14h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 6PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $52 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 20h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $52 23h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 25h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 8AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 26h
BNB Up or Down - June 28, 7AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $51 27h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 6AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $50 28h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $146 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.99 · official $77.99 (match) · 744 history records