Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2fc…5bd4 weather 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 657d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,121 (-11%) realized −$1,120 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%105W / 268L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$166
14 days−$63
30 days−$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$586
politics 12% −$693
economics 2% −$52
other 1% −$77
world 0% −$32
crypto 0% +$4
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -19.3% -27.0% 33% 33% -17.2%
≤30d 111 -13.5% -21.7% 36% 34% -9.6%
≤90d 338 -15.9% -23.9% 29% 25% -15.5%
all 373 -19.6% -27.3% 28% 24% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 24% -21.9%
10% -34.2% 21% -29.4%
15% -40.6% 18% -36.2%
20% -46.4% 15% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$15 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

657d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$1,120
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses105 / 268
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)373 / 374
History coverage657d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 373 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? Yes 43¢ 41¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on May 1? Jun 24 $7 −$10 -159%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $19 +$12 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $12 +$7 +59%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $86 −$86 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $63 +$32 +51%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $19 −$18 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $57 −$47 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $31 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 20 $51 +$51 +101%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $77 −$14 -19%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $50 −$1 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $31 −$13 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $62 −$19 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +75%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 20? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $16 −$11 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $92 +$16 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $91 −$13 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 19? Jun 19 $156 +$77 +49%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 19? Jun 18 $62 −$31 -50%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $20 +$6 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 −$19 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $71 −$48 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $72 −$63 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -53%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +197%
Croatia to win the second half? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $2 +$4 +211%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +178%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $137 +$66 +48%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 5+ shots Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -33%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $80 +$73 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $26 −$16 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $65 −$63 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 17? Jun 16 $24 +$5 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $62 +$88 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25? BUY Yes 43¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24? SELL Yes 86¢ $30 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 24? BUY Yes 51¢ $19 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 28h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 36h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL Yes 92¢ $12 36h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 40h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 42¢ $82 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? SELL Yes 61¢ $95 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $49 2d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 21? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 63¢ $31 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? SELL Yes 37¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 21? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 21? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 21? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 21? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 20? BUY Yes 29¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.02 · official $28.36 (match) · 1453 history records