Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D2 0xd2f7…3c0c sports 288 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$468 (+1%) realized +$446 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate50%144W / 142L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$618est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$146now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days−$221
14 days−$257
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$348
crypto 5% +$158
other 2% $0
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -27.6% -34.5% 36% 24% -20.5%
≤30d 133 -11.3% -19.8% 48% 33% -10.5%
≤90d 284 -8.1% -16.9% 50% 37% -9.9%
all 286 -7.7% -16.5% 50% 37% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 37% -9.6%
10% -24.4% 27% -18.3%
15% -31.7% 18% -26.2%
20% -38.4% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$34 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$146
Realized+$446
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses144 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$618
Open positions2
Markets (closed)286 / 288
History coverage95d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 286 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ 70¢ $75 $74 −$1 (-1%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ 94¢ $49 $71 +$22 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $82 +$43 +52%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $30 +$11 +38%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$4 -80%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $34 −$14 -42%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$22 +109%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $161 −$50 -31%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $107 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$4 -62%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $101 +$25 +24%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $92 −$23 -25%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $119 −$105 -89%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $89 +$38 +43%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$43 +85%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $95 −$44 -47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $65 −$3 -4%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $70 −$2 -3%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $28 −$19 -67%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $53 −$46 -87%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $20 −$18 -87%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $341 −$15 -4%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $159 +$1 +1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $206 −$42 -21%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $54 +$12 +23%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $616 −$33 -5%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $175 +$24 +14%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $308 −$18 -6%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $91 +$40 +44%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $56 −$4 -8%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $230 +$4 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $116 +$36 +31%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $95 +$21 +23%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $228 −$60 -27%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $297 +$6 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $317 +$28 +9%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $81 −$3 -3%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $179 +$32 +18%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $166 +$22 +13%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $70 +$8 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $177 −$116 -66%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $130 +$47 +36%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 08 $99 −$41 -41%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $10 −$1 -12%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $22 −$12 -52%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 08 $73 −$9 -12%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $183 +$6 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $5 −$2 -30%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $121 +$57 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $50 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $76 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $82 19h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 61¢ $40 19h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $30 27h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $30 27h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 70¢ $31 28h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 43h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 43h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 43h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 59¢ $40 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $48 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Cleveland Guardians 93¢ $108 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 94¢ $102 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 68¢ $5 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox SELL Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $125 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 79¢ $101 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $7 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ $58 2d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.72 · official $145.72 (match) · 1044 history records