Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D2 0xd2f7…ae5f sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$488 (+18%) realized +$495 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%33W / 21L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$653now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$440
7 days+$519
14 days+$479
30 days+$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$304
other 17% +$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +39.5% +26.2% 66% 66% +20.8%
≤30d 54 +24.9% +13.0% 61% 61% +11.8%
≤90d 54 +24.9% +13.0% 61% 61% +11.8%
all 54 +24.9% +13.0% 61% 61% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.0% 61% +11.8%
10% +2.2% 54% +1.1%
15% -7.7% 48% -8.7%
20% -16.7% 35% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +58% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$29 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$653
Realized+$495
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses33 / 21
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions10
Markets (closed)54 / 64
History coverage13d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 74¢ 74¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 56¢ 56¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$111 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$136 +134%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$80 +156%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $182 −$180 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $50 +$11 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$14 +134%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $30 +$29 +96%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $102 +$116 +114%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $40 +$14 +36%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $101 +$31 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $20 +$8 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $70 +$10 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10 +$4 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $79 −$79 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$15 +152%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $138 +$25 +18%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $92 +$76 +83%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 09 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $41 +$31 +76%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$7 +146%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $70 +$15 +21%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $30 +$12 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $71 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $151 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $121 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $122 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 27h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $102 27h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 45h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 45h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $102 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 38¢ $41 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $81 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $653.41 · official $653.41 (match) · 99 history records