Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2f7…a9a9 sports 33 markets active 20h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$108 (-16%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$160
7 days−$73
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$15
other 16% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -6.5% -15.4% 50% 50% -21.9%
≤30d 33 -9.0% -17.7% 52% 48% -25.0%
≤90d 33 -9.0% -17.7% 52% 48% -25.0%
all 33 -9.0% -17.7% 52% 48% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 48% -25.0%
10% -25.6% 48% -32.2%
15% -32.8% 33% -38.7%
20% -39.4% 24% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$22 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage32d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $16 −$16 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $22 −$22 -99%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $23 +$26 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $19 +$19 +101%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$42 +206%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $17 +$8 +46%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $19 +$12 +62%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $16 +$4 +24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $19 +$6 +29%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $23 −$22 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $23 +$33 +146%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $17 −$16 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $22 +$32 +146%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 11 $19 +$30 +158%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $26 −$25 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 10 $26 +$13 +48%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 09 $16 −$16 -98%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 09 $19 −$19 -98%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 09 $23 −$22 -98%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $24 +$6 +26%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 09 $28 +$11 +40%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 07 $2 +$2 +105%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $16 20h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 48¢ $19 20h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $22 43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 48¢ $21 46h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 71¢ $24 46h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $29 46h
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 35¢ $34 47h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 79¢ $8 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 30¢ $17 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $20 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $19 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $23 2d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 68¢ $17 2d
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Haiti 80¢ $16 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 61¢ $19 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 36¢ $23 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $17 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $19 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 40¢ $23 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $27 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $31 4d
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 38¢ $19 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $22 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 BUY Over 52¢ $26 5d
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 31¢ $16 7d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 33¢ $19 7d
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 34¢ $23 7d
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 67¢ $26 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 79¢ $4 7d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $24 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records