Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:51:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2f4…cddb sports 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9,304 (-11%) realized −$9,397 · open +$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%51W / 35L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$902per market
Trades / day35.4pace
Fees−$1,178est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,051now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$302
7 days+$717
14 days+$863
30 days−$9,584
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$9,391
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +63.8% +48.2% 63% 63% +2.5%
≤30d 86 +23.5% +11.7% 59% 59% -19.6%
≤90d 86 +23.5% +11.7% 59% 59% -19.6%
all 86 +23.5% +11.7% 59% 59% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.7% 59% -19.6%
10% +1.0% 57% -27.3%
15% ← realistic here -8.7% 41% -34.3%
20% -17.7% 29% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$946) neutral
Persistence
early -3% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$473 vs −$963 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$2,051
Realized−$9,397
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses51 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,178
Open positions8
Markets (closed)86 / 94
History coverage22d
Avg bet$902
Trades / day35.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 67¢ 60¢ $564 $501 −$63 (-11%)
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D Prestige 58¢ 98¢ $287 $488 +$202 (+70%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 69¢ 68¢ $474 $465 −$9 (-2%)
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BESTIA 79¢ 76¢ $236 $226 −$9 (-4%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 82¢ 76¢ $171 $161 −$11 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner KOLESIE 49¢ 55¢ $95 $106 +$11 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner KOLESIE 57¢ 45¢ $130 $104 −$27 (-20%)
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Walczaki 64¢ 36¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $172 +$166 +97%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $480 +$150 +31%
Map Handicap: INF (-1.5) vs Alpha Dominion Nation (+1.5) Jun 21 $513 +$244 +48%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $389 −$345 -89%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $438 −$433 -99%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - Unite Jun 21 $184 −$117 -64%
Map Handicap: CC (-1.5) vs xept (+1.5) Jun 21 $265 −$55 -21%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 20 $186 +$78 +42%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Walczaki (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 20 $179 +$147 +82%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 20 $198 +$257 +130%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $271 +$101 +37%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $64 −$5 -8%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $391 −$85 -22%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $251 +$199 +79%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $284 +$167 +59%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $96 −$95 -99%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Epi Jun 19 $438 +$378 +86%
Map Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs EAC Rising (+1.5) Jun 19 $397 +$187 +47%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $227 −$225 -99%
Map Handicap: ESB (-1.5) vs Coalesce (+1.5) Jun 19 $262 +$104 +40%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $168 +$26 +16%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $673 +$170 +25%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $22 +$5 +24%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $325 +$176 +54%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - Stake R Jun 18 $263 +$69 +26%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $336 −$333 -99%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $506 −$458 -90%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) Jun 18 $74 +$32 +43%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $357 +$109 +31%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 18 $326 +$127 +39%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $320 −$66 -21%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $304 −$85 -28%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $245 +$328 +134%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $278 +$166 +60%
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $369 −$368 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $208 +$112 +54%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$34 +34%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1,924 −$1,703 -89%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $131 +$100 +76%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1,710 +$576 +34%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $4,073 −$4,014 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $5,472 −$5,410 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $118 +$23 +19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $2,030 −$2,010 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 05 $866 −$854 -99%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $264 −$264 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $10,776 +$2,942 +27%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $2,859 −$2,723 -95%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $666 +$970 +146%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $6,036 −$1,380 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 3 Winner BUY KOLESIE 49¢ $97 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $90 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 29¢ $85 2h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 54¢ $22 3h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 57¢ $42 3h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 57¢ $62 3h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 57¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 59¢ $54 3h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 59¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 59¢ $61 3h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 59¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 59¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 59¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 57¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Prestige vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Group D BUY Prestige 57¢ $26 3h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 64¢ $162 4h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs KOLESIE (BO5) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 64¢ $32 4h
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY BESTIA 76¢ $4 17h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 79¢ $20 17h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL TDK 99¢ $336 20h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY TDK 50¢ $172 22h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL Lilmix 5¢ $1 24h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ENERGYULTRA (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL Lilmix 5¢ $4 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,051.29 · official $2,032.64 (match) · 841 history records