Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2f2…6cec world 310 markets active 1h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-1%) realized −$94 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate45%112W / 138L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days−$14
14 days−$15
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$86
other 20% +$23
world 17% −$4
politics 6% −$11
finance 1% −$9
tech 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$6
culture 0% $0
weather 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 -4.6% -13.7% 49% 36% -12.0%
≤30d 162 -2.2% -11.5% 48% 34% -8.2%
≤90d 217 -4.8% -13.8% 45% 32% -18.3%
all 250 -1.7% -11.0% 45% 31% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 31% -10.9%
10% -19.6% 22% -19.4%
15% -27.3% 18% -27.2%
20% -34.4% 16% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses112 / 138
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions60
Markets (closed)250 / 310
History coverage536d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 60 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 73¢ 90¢ $34 $42 +$8 (+24%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 69¢ 57¢ $46 $38 −$8 (-17%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 63¢ 84¢ $14 $18 +$5 (+34%)
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 79¢ 91¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+15%)
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No 21¢ 33¢ $11 $17 +$6 (+57%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 74¢ 81¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 15¢ 60¢ $3 $13 +$9 (+301%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 28¢ 75¢ $4 $10 +$6 (+170%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 72¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+29%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 67¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+16%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 76¢ 86¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+13%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No 67¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+9%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 79¢ 80¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 71¢ 70¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 86¢ 85¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 66¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? No 78¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 72¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 44¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$10 +180%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +36%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +124%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 15 $9 −$4 -47%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $4 $0 +9%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $8 +$3 +34%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 +$4 +365%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $16 −$3 -16%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 −$6 -78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +110%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +47%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$12 +195%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $6 +$4 +59%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +65%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 $0 +32%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $2 $0 -3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $1 43m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 54m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $4 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last tr BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $15 2h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 80¢ $2 3h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 14¢ $1 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $2 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $4 4h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 78¢ $2 4h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 5h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 6h
Will San Diego Padres win the 2026 National League Championship Series BUY Yes $1 6h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 7h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 7h
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 7h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 9h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 9h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 62¢ $3 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 74¢ $4 11h
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY No $1 13h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 51¢ $5 16h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $1 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 19h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 20h
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? BUY No 77¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $333.60 · official $332.59 (match) · 1225 history records