Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2f1…3aa7 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 344d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 29L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$2
world 23% +$4
politics 20% +$1
crypto 4% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.8% -7.0% 75% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 10 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -8.5%
all 38 -0.1% -9.6% 24% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 3% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

344d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage344d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 80¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $41 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 21 $35 +$3 +9%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $38 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 -6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $69 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $2 $0 -5%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $1 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $76 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves leave Starner’s cabinet by July 15th? Aug 10 $20 $0 +1%
Will Kenny Hallaert win the 2025 WSOP Main Event? Aug 10 $89 +$3 +3%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 18 $20 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Jul 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Jul 16 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3? Jul 16 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 16 $99 −$1 -1%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Jul 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Jul 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 16 $2 $0 +25%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Jul 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Jul 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 14 $108 $0 +0%
Will Javier Milei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 14 $119 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $38 58m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 49¢ $42 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 48¢ $41 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 59¢ $38 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $21 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $38 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $35 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 50¢ $35 16d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $35 17d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 18d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 18d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $14 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $34 19d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 19d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $37 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $30 20d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 20d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 21d
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 99¢ $10 339d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.40 · official $38.40 (match) · 102 history records