Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2e9…3074 crypto 132 markets active 9h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d only
✗ bot/MM pace (419 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,064 (-9%) realized −$1,064 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate29%41W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day419.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$254
7 days−$399
14 days−$569
30 days−$569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$375
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (419 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -21.4% -28.9% 15% 7% -20.2%
≤30d 142 -13.2% -21.4% 29% 6% -14.0%
≤90d 142 -13.2% -21.4% 29% 6% -14.0%
all 142 -13.2% -21.4% 29% 6% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover419.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.4% 6% -14.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.0% 4% -22.2%
15% -35.8% 1% -29.7%
20% -42.1% 1% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
25.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,064
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses41 / 101
Open positions0
Markets (closed)142 / 132
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$86
Trades / day419.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 142 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 18 $17 −$14 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $95 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $86 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $110 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $125 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $109 −$8 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $109 −$10 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $71 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $99 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $157 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $203 −$5 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $194 −$18 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $83 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$4 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $32 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $83 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $133 −$16 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $149 −$22 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $91 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $41 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $66 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $97 −$14 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records