Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2e5…0f0e world 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$602 (-7%) realized −$358 · open −$244
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate56%20W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$1,197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$393
14 days−$435
30 days−$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% −$635
finance 5% +$25
politics 3% −$31
other 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -8.3% -17.0% 56% 24% -16.1%
≤30d 36 -6.9% -15.8% 56% 28% -15.1%
≤90d 36 -6.9% -15.8% 56% 28% -15.1%
all 36 -6.9% -15.8% 56% 28% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 28% -15.1%
10% -23.8% 11% -23.2%
15% -31.2% 6% -30.6%
20% -37.9% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$52 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$1,197
Realized−$358
Unrealized−$244
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses20 / 16
Open positions10
Markets (closed)36 / 46
History coverage21d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 86¢ 78¢ $196 $178 −$18 (-9%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 69¢ $143 $151 +$8 (+6%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 85¢ $146 $143 −$3 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 77¢ $150 $138 −$12 (-8%)
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 73¢ 69¢ $143 $136 −$7 (-5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? No 55¢ 50¢ $144 $129 −$14 (-10%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 61¢ 56¢ $111 $103 −$8 (-7%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 62¢ 28¢ $144 $66 −$78 (-54%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 26¢ 0¢ $112 $1 −$112 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $143 +$19 +13%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $146 +$13 +9%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $108 −$6 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $568 −$39 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $225 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 15 $146 −$75 -52%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $147 +$4 +3%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 15 $150 −$34 -22%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $152 −$14 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $150 +$12 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $255 +$34 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $573 −$130 -23%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $358 +$5 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $357 +$37 +10%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 12 $152 +$17 +11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $154 +$26 +17%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $305 +$46 +15%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 12 $256 −$61 -24%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $153 −$53 -35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 11 $152 −$37 -25%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $152 +$58 +38%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $153 −$90 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $205 +$20 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $102 +$3 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 10 $102 +$31 +31%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $52 −$22 -42%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 08 $102 +$9 +9%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $200 +$19 +10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $100 −$17 -17%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 01 $100 −$6 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $100 +$25 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? May 31 $100 −$7 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $100 +$37 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL No 73¢ $162 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 65¢ $143 2h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 73¢ $143 3h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $145 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $159 11h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 40¢ $100 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $108 17h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 48¢ $102 25h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 51¢ $108 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 62¢ $144 26h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $144 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 42¢ $90 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $225 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 29¢ $70 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 52¢ $151 2d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $146 2d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 87¢ $147 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 59¢ $146 2d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 63¢ $116 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 59¢ $138 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 51¢ $147 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 94¢ $161 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 87¢ $150 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 87¢ $150 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 54¢ $150 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $112 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $112 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $165 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $111 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $112 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,196.91 · official $1,196.99 (match) · 136 history records