Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D2 0xd2e5…34d4 world 8 markets active 0h ago coverage 43d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$82
7 days−$82
14 days−$109
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$21
crypto 11% +$1
other 9% −$82
politics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -57.7% -61.7% 0% 0% -61.7%
≤30d 6 -11.8% -20.2% 67% 0% -17.2%
≤90d 8 -8.8% -17.5% 75% 0% -15.7%
all 8 -8.8% -17.5% 75% 0% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -15.7%
10% -25.4% 0% -23.8%
15% -32.6% 0% -31.1%
20% -39.2% 0% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$55 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage43d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $142 −$82 -58%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $174 −$28 -16%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 10 $347 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $168 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $222 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 26 $169 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? May 20 $108 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 14 $167 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $60 18m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 83¢ $142 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $102 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $10 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $33 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $174 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $168 10d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $168 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $168 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $166 20d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $165 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? SELL No 100¢ $170 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $169 25d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $112 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $59 27d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $112 31d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $109 31d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $57 35d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $64 36d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 36d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $168 37d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $69 40d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $68 41d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $68 42d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $98 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records