Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2e3…c890 crypto 906 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$128 (-5%) realized −$128 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate46%417W / 489L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$51
14 days+$11
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$115
sports 18% −$17
weather 17% −$75
other 6% +$40
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +21.1% +9.5% 56% 56% +21.2%
≤30d 327 -9.3% -17.9% 26% 20% -15.4%
≤90d 906 -8.2% -16.9% 46% 38% -15.6%
all 906 -8.2% -16.9% 46% 38% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 38% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 32% -23.7%
15% -32.1% 13% -31.1%
20% -38.8% 8% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$128
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses417 / 489
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)906 / 906
History coverage82d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 906 Trades
no open positions (284 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22 +$30 +134%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$16 +96%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$12 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 16 $15 $0 -1%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $19 +$10 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -87%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 05 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 05 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $22 18h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $16 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $32 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 20h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $16 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 45¢ $15 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 44¢ $15 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 64¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 11d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 6? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 6? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C or below on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 6? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 11d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 6? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3100 history records