Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D2 0xd2e2…2964 other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$846 (-15%) realized −$864 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%53W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,289now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days+$111
14 days+$100
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% −$868
other 39% −$186
sports 13% +$204
world 0% −$10
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +1.0% -8.7% 38% 37% +2.7%
≤30d 74 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 39% +1.2%
≤90d 74 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 39% +1.2%
all 126 -11.5% -20.0% 42% 41% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 41% -28.5%
10% -27.6% 34% -35.4%
15% -34.6% 31% -41.6%
20% -41.0% 22% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$26 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$1,289
Realized−$864
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses53 / 73
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions22
Markets (closed)126 / 148
History coverage349d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $236 $275 +$39 (+17%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $230 $195 −$35 (-15%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 69¢ $50 $89 +$39 (+78%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 92¢ $50 $66 +$16 (+33%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $88 $64 −$24 (-28%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 24¢ $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+45%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $15 $28 +$13 (+88%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $27 +$7 (+35%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-20%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$16 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$8 -41%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$26 +126%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -54%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$28 +139%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$14 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$13 +64%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -90%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$12 +76%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$18 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$51 +249%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Jun 14 $20 −$5 -22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$89 +291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$8 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$30 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$9 +166%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $40 13h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 1¢ $0 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 15¢ $5 14h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 15h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 SELL Under 46¢ $19 16h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $20 16h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 17h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 17h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 17h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $49 18h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 20h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 28h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 39h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,288.77 · official $1,288.79 (match) · 314 history records