Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2e1…e138 crypto 22 markets active 7d ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$49 (-6%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day67.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 36% -19.7%
≤30d 22 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 36% -19.7%
≤90d 22 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 36% -19.7%
all 22 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 36% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 36% -19.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 23% -27.4%
15% -31.0% 18% -34.4%
20% -37.7% 14% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day67.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 10 $78 −$6 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 10 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $111 +$19 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $58 −$12 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$20 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $53 +$46 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 10 $36 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 +$63 +593%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $54 +$53 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 10 $13 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 10 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $87 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$3 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $35 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $36 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $18 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $130 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $40 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records