Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:43:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2e1…ebbd sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$51 (+3%) realized +$52 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%26W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$175
other 17% −$158
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 30 -9.7% -18.3% 50% 50% -8.5%
all 47 -6.9% -15.8% 55% 55% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 55% -8.7%
10% -23.8% 49% -17.4%
15% -31.2% 32% -25.4%
20% -37.9% 23% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$34 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized+$52
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses26 / 21
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage232d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Coleman Wong May 03 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $4 −$3 -71%
Mauthausen: David Jorda Sanchis vs Roman Safiullin May 01 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Aix en Provence: Thomas Faurel vs David Goffin Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Cagliari: Zachary Svajda vs Hubert Hurkacz Apr 28 $1 $0 +38%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud Apr 28 $1 $0 +37%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 28 $1 +$2 +345%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $15 +$12 +77%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $101 −$101 -100%
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka Apr 27 $37 +$36 +96%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste Apr 27 $408 +$140 +34%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In G Apr 27 $95 −$66 -70%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Apr 26 $9 −$8 -84%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 25 $1 $0 +43%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 25 $5 +$1 +17%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $5 +$7 +150%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $8 +$2 +33%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $19 +$10 +51%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs L1ga Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Divisio Apr 21 $15 +$4 +28%
Dota 2: 1win vs MODUS (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A Apr 21 $11 +$4 +32%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $504 +$475 +94%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $200 −$153 -76%
Celtics vs. Timberwolves Apr 17 $199 −$199 -100%
Open de Moselle: Corentin Moutet vs Aleksandar Vukic Apr 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Hellenic Championship: Mackenzie McDonald vs Tomas Etcheverry Nov 04 $21 −$19 -88%
Open de Moselle: Jan Choinski vs Lorenzo Sonego Nov 03 $1 $0 +38%
76ers vs. Nets Nov 03 $14 +$7 +52%
Open de Moselle, Qualification: Vitaliy Sachko vs Clement Tabur Nov 02 $11 +$3 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Nov 02 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Nov 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-01? Nov 02 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2025-10-31? Oct 31 $1 +$1 +63%
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Andrey Rublev Oct 30 $2 +$1 +64%
Rockets vs. Raptors Oct 30 $1 +$1 +52%
LoL: KT Rolster vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) Oct 29 $20 +$6 +31%
Rolex Paris Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie Oct 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Ben Shelton vs Flavio Cobolli Oct 28 $5 +$1 +22%
Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Valentin Royer Oct 28 $1 +$1 +66%
Will Trump announce TikTok deal by Thursday? Oct 28 $5 $0 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $3 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 1h
Jiujiang: Adam Walton vs Coleman Wong BUY Adam Walton 44¢ $1 45d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 46d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 46d
Mauthausen: David Jorda Sanchis vs Roman Safiullin SELL Roman Safiullin 96¢ $26 47d
Mauthausen: David Jorda Sanchis vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 73¢ $20 47d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Raptors 24¢ $10 48d
Magic vs. Pistons BUY Magic 23¢ $9 48d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 49d
Aix en Provence: Thomas Faurel vs David Goffin BUY David Goffin $1 49d
Cagliari: Zachary Svajda vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Zachary Svajda 13¢ $1 50d
Cagliari: Zachary Svajda vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Zachary Svajda $1 50d
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud SELL Casper Ruud 47¢ $1 50d
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper Ruud BUY Casper Ruud 33¢ $1 50d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 63¢ $3 50d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 14¢ $1 50d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $27 50d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 51d
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka SELL Aryna Sabalenka 96¢ $73 51d
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Aryna Sabalenka 37¢ $10 51d
Madrid Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Naomi Osaka BUY Aryna Sabalenka 55¢ $28 51d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste SELL Hailey Baptiste 48¢ $1 51d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste BUY Hailey Baptiste 41¢ $1 51d
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In G SELL Lilmix 82¢ $1 51d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste SELL Hailey Baptiste 91¢ $547 51d
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In G SELL Lilmix 23¢ $28 51d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Hailey Baptiste BUY Hailey Baptiste 67¢ $407 51d
Counter-Strike: STATE vs Lilmix (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #1 Play-In G BUY Lilmix 75¢ $95 51d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 83¢ $101 51d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner BUY LOUD 78¢ $1 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.53 · official $97.53 (match) · 104 history records