Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:20:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2e0…4983 sports 795 markets active 0h ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$720 (-1%) realized −$713 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%295W / 498L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$278est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$2,618
other 12% +$1,717
world 0% −$13
politics 0% −$18
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 41% -9.6%
≤30d 146 -6.6% -15.5% 41% 38% -14.4%
≤90d 403 -11.3% -19.8% 37% 33% -8.4%
all 793 -9.7% -18.3% 37% 34% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 34% -11.0%
10% -26.1% 32% -19.5%
15% -33.3% 29% -27.3%
20% -39.8% 25% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$40 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$713
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses295 / 498
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$278
Open positions2
Markets (closed)793 / 795
History coverage397d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 793 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 47¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Senegal to score first vs. France? Yes 28¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 74 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $10 +$13 +128%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $16 +$1 +5%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $26 −$12 -47%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Alvaro Guillen Meza vs. Federico Bondioli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $16 +$20 +123%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 16 $23 +$4 +16%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $12 −$1 -10%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $20 −$17 -83%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $2 +$8 +408%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $19 +$22 +116%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $19 −$19 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $2 $0 -24%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $33 −$10 -31%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$11 +539%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Wilyer Abreu: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$19 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $10 +$9 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $22 +$2 +9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$5 +45%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -17%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $81 −$72 -89%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $123 −$121 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $127 +$105 +82%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $23 −$23 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $19 +$14 +73%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $76 +$58 +76%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $30 +$31 +103%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $16 +$30 +183%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $60 +$49 +82%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $33 −$23 -71%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $28 +$13 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $23 5m
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $23 17m
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 1h
Senegal to score first vs. France? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 1h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 19¢ $17 1h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 26¢ $14 1h
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom SELL Charles Broom 36¢ $7 2h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 25¢ $5 3h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 44¢ $9 3h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $26 10h
Alvaro Guillen Meza vs. Federico Bondioli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 99¢ $36 11h
Alvaro Guillen Meza vs. Federico Bondioli: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 44¢ $16 14h
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton SELL Joshua Charlton 72¢ $15 15h
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton BUY Joshua Charlton 47¢ $10 15h
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka SELL Taiyo Yamanaka 52¢ $11 15h
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Taiyo Yamanaka 56¢ $12 15h
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton SELL Yecong Mo 50¢ $12 16h
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton BUY Yecong Mo 55¢ $13 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 SELL Over $4 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $10 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 48¢ $20 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 99¢ $10 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 19¢ $2 18h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $42 18h
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 42¢ $5 19h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $5 19h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire 12¢ $2 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.01 · official $23.01 (match) · 1803 history records