Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2e0…1aaa other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-24%) realized −$27 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$21
sports 14% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-44.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -38.5% -44.3% 33% 33% -43.8%
≤30d 9 -38.5% -44.3% 33% 33% -43.8%
≤90d 9 -38.5% -44.3% 33% 33% -43.8%
all 9 -38.5% -44.3% 33% 33% -43.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.3% 33% -43.8%
10% -49.7% 33% -49.2%
15% -54.5% 33% -54.1%
20% -59.0% 33% -58.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -38% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$27
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 66¢ 68¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 71¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 66¢ 20¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 21h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 46h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 46h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 46h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $10 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.11 · official $43.11 (match) · 17 history records