Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:06:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2df…5aff politics 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 630d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 72L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 97% −$15
other 2% $0
sports 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.5%
all 75 -0.4% -9.9% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

630d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage630d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $52 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $52 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? May 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $53 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $8 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 19 $53 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Cameron Ward win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Nov 24 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bam Adebayo lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Feyenoord win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will another player win NFL MVP for the 2024-2025 season? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Puka Nacua be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Rabby airdrop in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jordan Love be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
NYC mayoral special election in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Chargers win the AFC Championship? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year? Dec 20 $0 $0 -2%
Will Joel Embiid win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Dec 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Anthony Davis lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Atalanta win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 09 $1 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture Chasiv Yar before December? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Brock Purdy win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Besiktas win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win the MLS Cup? Nov 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Ryan Walters for Education Secretary? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Nov 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will another driver win the 2024 F1 season? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Republicans control 218 or fewer seats in the House after the ele Nov 17 $0 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 14h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 18d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 34d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 34d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 40d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 41d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL No 100¢ $52 48d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY No 100¢ $52 48d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $53 65d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $53 65d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 70d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 71d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 80d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $8 81d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 92d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 92d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 97d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 98d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $53 102d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $53 102d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 106d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 107d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $53 110d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $53 113d
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $50 168d
Will Cameron Ward win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? SELL No 100¢ $50 207d
Will Cameron Ward win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? BUY No 100¢ $50 245d
Will 'BRAT' win Album of the Year? SELL No 86¢ $0 545d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records