Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2df…b572 other 119 markets active 3d ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$766 (-27%) realized −$677 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate23%26W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$148
14 days−$140
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% −$305
other 24% −$45
tech 17% −$316
crypto 8% −$45
sports 5% +$11
world 5% −$63
economics 0% −$12
finance 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +0.6% -9.0% 14% 14% -81.6%
≤30d 15 +6.3% -3.9% 20% 20% -74.0%
≤90d 15 +6.3% -3.9% 20% 20% -74.0%
all 111 -4.2% -13.3% 23% 18% -33.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 18% -33.4%
10% -21.6% 16% -39.8%
15% -29.2% 15% -45.6%
20% -36.1% 14% -50.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$18 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$677
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses26 / 85
Open positions8
Markets (closed)111 / 119
History coverage185d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $27 $14 −$14 (-50%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $32 $11 −$21 (-67%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-46%)
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 2¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-86%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 25¢ 2¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-91%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-94%)
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 61 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$20 +985%
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$11 +224%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $74 −$72 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $17 −$16 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $800B and $900B at market close on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $30 −$29 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Jun 12 $0 $0 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $600B and $700B at market close on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on Jun 12 $0 $0 -97%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $900B and $1T at market close on I Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Kraken IPO by March 31, 2026? Jun 10 $10 +$9 +85%
Will António José Seguro win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Jan 18 $8 −$6 -73%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Jan 18 $63 −$61 -96%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 18 $179 −$179 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal p Jan 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Po Jan 18 $214 −$214 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 202 Jan 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presid Jan 18 $288 −$277 -96%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 13 $16 −$5 -31%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Jan 13 $20 +$15 +73%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 13 $25 +$13 +52%
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Jan 13 $142 +$470 +330%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 13 $2 +$57 +2864%
Will André Ventura win more than 26% of votes in the first round? Jan 13 $6 +$3 +50%
Will André Ventura win between 24% and 26% of votes in the first round Jan 13 $10 +$20 +198%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Jan 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal pr Jan 06 $17 −$3 -16%
Will André Ventura win less than 16% of votes in the first round? Jan 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $100 +$12 +12%
Evidence Epstein blackmailed politicians released by Jan 31? Dec 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Gold close between $4500 and $4600 at the end of 2025? Dec 25 $4 +$38 +1008%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 26? Dec 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Dec 25 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for C Dec 21 $8 −$8 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Dec 21 $14 +$38 +270%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 19 $172 −$24 -14%
Will the Brown University shooter be arrested on December 19? Dec 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Dec 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the December meeting? Dec 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Brown University shooter arrested by December 19? Dec 18 $102 +$1 +1%
Will coffeexcoin win the competition? Dec 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 18 $12 +$8 +61%
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on D Dec 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" while addressing the nation on De Dec 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $0 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $8 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $0 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 8¢ $0 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $0 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $3 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY Yes 27¢ $4 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 10¢ $10 5d
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $22 5d
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $16 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 19¢ $19 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY No 2¢ $2 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 4¢ $8 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No 1¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.63 · official $32.36 (match) · 423 history records