Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd2db…f400 other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,813 (+4%) realized +$1,824 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate65%11W / 6L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$2,533per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$1,810
other 17% −$1
sports 10% +$368
politics 8% −$437
crypto 0% +$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 -42.0% -47.5% 33% 0% -16.0%
all 17 -7.0% -15.9% 65% 24% -5.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 24% -5.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 18% -14.9%
15% -31.3% 18% -23.1%
20% -38.0% 12% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,160) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$428 vs −$578 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized+$1,824
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses11 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage178d
Avg bet$2,533
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $240 $229 −$11 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 14 $4,630 +$5 +0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 10 $1,731 −$449 -26%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $12 −$12 -97%
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Mar 25 $484 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $618 +$1 +0%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 17 $2,160 +$5 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 08 $1,453 +$12 +1%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027? Mar 03 $48 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Timberwolves Feb 06 $1,520 −$1,520 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $22,419 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Cavaliers Jan 30 $3,100 +$1,900 +61%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 23, 2026? Jan 23 $910 −$910 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026? Jan 13 $6,000 +$2,720 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 10 $50 +$37 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 9? Jan 10 $110 +$24 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $89 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $67 1h
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $63 1h
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $57 1h
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $54 1h
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4,635 43d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $4,630 43d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 48d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 13¢ $32 48d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 32¢ $257 63d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 32¢ $255 63d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 32¢ $285 63d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 32¢ $93 63d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 45¢ $324 69d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 15¢ $12 77d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 78d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 78d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 78d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 78d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 46¢ $6 78d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 46¢ $4 79d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 79d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 79d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 79d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 46¢ $12 79d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $362 79d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $365 79d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 79d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $68 79d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $68 79d
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 46¢ $54 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.00 · official $229.00 (match) · 211 history records