Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D2 0xd2db…ffcb crypto 1578 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 17d only
✗ bot/MM pace (108 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$573 (-2%) realized −$573 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%1503W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day107.9pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$332
7 days−$342
14 days−$472
30 days−$613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$184
other 21% −$203
world 3% −$23
sports 3% −$56
politics 3% −$145
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (108 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -7.3% -16.2% 22% 2% -13.3%
≤30d 1578 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 1578 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 0% -11.2%
all 1578 -1.3% -10.7% 95% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover107.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 0% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 0% -19.7%
15% -27.1% 0% -27.5%
20% -34.2% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$11 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$573
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1503 / 75
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1578 / 1578
History coverage18d ⚠
Avg bet$21
Trades / day107.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1578 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $62 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $439 −$2 -0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $135 −$7 -5%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $171 −$6 -4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round Jun 17 $182 −$55 -30%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 17 $186 −$57 -31%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $131 −$3 -2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $981 −$8 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $131 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $425 +$6 +1%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $289 −$12 -4%
Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026? Jun 16 $376 −$14 -4%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $66 −$21 -32%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $936 −$7 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $49 +$1 +1%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 $0 -4%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 3 Jun 16 $36 −$20 -56%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $23 −$1 -5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 16 $84 −$2 -3%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $504 −$21 -4%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 16 $123 −$22 -18%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 16 $45 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $336 +$5 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $104 +$8 +7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $27 −$5 -20%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $225 −$25 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $259 −$1 -0%
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 16 $32 −$1 -4%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia Jun 16 $39 −$16 -41%
Will the announcers say "Red Card" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $66 −$6 -9%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $78 −$2 -3%
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $66 −$20 -30%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $194 +$4 +2%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $250 −$5 -2%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $329 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $168 −$13 -8%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Jun 15 $16 +$2 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $138 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $275 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $60 −$12 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 1m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $437 1m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $439 9m
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 14¢ $25 22m
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 72¢ $165 1h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round SELL Yes 45¢ $127 1h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 44¢ $129 1h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 14¢ $6 2h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $129 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $26 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $160 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $188 5h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 6h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 6h
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 6h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 13¢ $28 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 74¢ $30 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 73¢ $7 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 73¢ $94 6h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 53¢ $127 7h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 50¢ $277 7h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 74¢ $74 7h
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 74¢ $97 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 73¢ $131 8h
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 62¢ $186 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round BUY Yes 63¢ $182 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $127 8h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 8h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $49 8h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $289 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records