Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D2 0xd2da…ecee crypto 196 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$328 (+3%) realized +$192 · open +$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%105W / 79L
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$836now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$91
14 days−$143
30 days−$143
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$219
other 28% +$281
world 24% +$285
sports 3% −$133
culture 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -16.5% -24.5% 57% 57% -31.2%
≤30d 11 -24.8% -31.9% 45% 45% -29.5%
≤90d 174 -18.2% -26.0% 56% 52% -12.0%
all 184 -17.3% -25.2% 57% 52% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 52% -8.5%
10% -32.3% 41% -17.2%
15% -38.9% 26% -25.2%
20% -44.9% 15% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$23 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$836
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$136
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses105 / 79
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)184 / 196
History coverage202d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $95 $256 +$161 (+169%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $120 $113 −$7 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $50 $87 +$37 (+74%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 76¢ $50 $70 +$20 (+41%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 62¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $75 $66 −$9 (-12%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $28 −$22 (-45%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 20¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 46¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$22 +76%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $60 −$59 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $44 +$10 +23%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $61 +$30 +49%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $136 −$7 -6%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6AM ET May 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $76 +$56 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? May 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $75 +$21 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 07 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 05 $10 +$10 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET May 05 $31 +$13 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 01 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 01 $741 +$47 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7AM ET Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Apr 27 $20 +$16 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$3 +33%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7AM ET Apr 24 $120 +$21 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 24 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 24 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 24 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 24 $100 +$29 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 24 $20 +$19 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 24 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 24 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 23 $100 +$41 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $45 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $29 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $60 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $45 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 52¢ $25 8d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 9d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $128 9d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $44 12d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $56 12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $103 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $71 12d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 12d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 18d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 25d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 25d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $20 33d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 33d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 33d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $15 37d
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 34¢ $10 39d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 39d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 46¢ $10 39d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 57¢ $76 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $835.56 · official $835.56 (match) · 553 history records