Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D2 0xd2d8…6a99 crypto 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$39 (-5%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate56%66W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$16
sports 37% +$11
other 10% −$10
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +30.7% +18.3% 43% 43% +8.0%
≤30d 14 +30.7% +18.3% 43% 43% +8.0%
≤90d 116 -12.1% -20.5% 55% 41% -14.6%
all 118 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 42% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 42% -12.0%
10% -26.3% 30% -20.4%
15% -33.4% 24% -28.1%
20% -40.0% 20% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses66 / 52
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 121
History coverage238d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 78¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$1 -4%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 +$4 +42%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$1 -7%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 +$8 +74%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $20 −$2 -10%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 A Jun 26 $10 +$18 +179%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$1 -8%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Par Jun 25 $5 −$1 -11%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2. Jun 25 $10 +$19 +182%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $2 +$1 +60%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2. Jun 24 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $51 −$10 -19%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 21 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 21 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 21 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 20 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 19 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $1 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 19 $1 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET May 19 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 19 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 19 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 19 $2 −$1 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 19 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 19 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 19 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 18 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET May 18 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 18 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 18 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 10 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 10 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 10 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 10 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 10 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $50 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 61¢ $19 27h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 AND Panam BUY 7¢ $2 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 28h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 41¢ $7 29h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $14 32h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL 51¢ $9 34h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $10 34h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY 53¢ $10 34h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $18 35h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 61¢ $18 41h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 2d
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $10 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 A SELL 79¢ $28 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 A BUY 28¢ $10 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL 19¢ $9 3d
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY 20¢ $10 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Par SELL 26¢ $5 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Par BUY 28¢ $5 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2. SELL 99¢ $29 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2. BUY 34¢ $10 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2. SELL 18¢ $5 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2. BUY 20¢ $5 4d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $2 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $42 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $4 5d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 6d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $2 6d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.68 · official $49.68 (match) · 271 history records