Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2d5…ef24 crypto 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (119 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$22 (-12%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate70%64W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day119.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (119 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -2.9% -12.1% 70% 51% -23.3%
≤30d 91 -2.9% -12.1% 70% 51% -23.3%
≤90d 91 -2.9% -12.1% 70% 51% -23.3%
all 91 -2.9% -12.1% 70% 51% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover119.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 51% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 27% -30.6%
15% -28.2% 11% -37.3%
20% -35.3% 1% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses64 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day119.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -64%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -47%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -61%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -41%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -69%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $0 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 23m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 24m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 34m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 38m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 38m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $0 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 44m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records