Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2d4…41b2 other 107 markets active 4d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$40 (+0%) realized +$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 96L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$5
politics 37% −$5
sports 5% +$49
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -4.0% -13.1% 5% 2% -9.7%
all 106 -1.1% -10.5% 9% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 5% -9.1%
10% -19.1% 4% -17.8%
15% -26.9% 4% -25.8%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×17.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 96
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)106 / 107
History coverage108d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $77 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $63 $0 -0%
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 22 $61 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $110 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $74 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? May 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $162 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $86 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $129 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 10 $79 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 09 $83 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $76 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $90 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $80 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $142 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $164 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $75 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $74 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $71 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $83 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $74 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $76 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $76 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $74 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $82 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $9 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $9 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 9d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $12 10d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $12 10d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 18d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 23d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 24d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 26d
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 100¢ $61 26d
Will Alexei Popyrin win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 100¢ $61 26d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $67 26d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $67 27d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 27d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 27d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $61 28d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $61 30d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $74 31d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $74 31d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 32d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 33d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $73 33d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $73 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $70 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $70 35d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $87 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 286 history records