Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2d4…7686 world 38 markets active 1d ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$63 (-10%) realized −$57 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$8
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% −$68
sports 9% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)+29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +171.7% +145.8% 40% 40% -25.4%
≤90d 37 +42.6% +29.0% 35% 22% -18.0%
all 37 +42.6% +29.0% 35% 22% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.0% 22% -18.0%
10% +16.6% 3% -25.9%
15% +5.4% 3% -33.0%
20% -5.0% 3% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$57
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage70d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $25 +$3 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 08 $5 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $15 −$12 -80%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $15 −$10 -69%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $25 +$3 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $15 −$2 -15%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $25 +$3 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $25 −$5 -20%
Iran leadership change by April 30? May 01 $10 −$5 -54%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 29 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 27 $25 −$3 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Apr 26 $25 −$4 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 25 $5 +$1 +13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 25 $5 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Apr 25 $5 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 25 $10 $0 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 25 $11 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Apr 24 $25 −$1 -5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 24 $25 −$4 -16%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $15 −$5 -30%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 23 $10 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Apr 23 $15 −$1 -9%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 23 $25 −$2 -9%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $25 $0 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $15 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $25 −$5 -21%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 21 $10 +$2 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $25 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Apr 21 $20 −$3 -17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 20 $25 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $25 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $5 $0 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 18 $5 +$1 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 29h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 8d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 9d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No $5 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $1 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $0 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.25 · official $9.04 (match) · 1142 history records