Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D2 0xd2d1…6fbc other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$49 (+8%) realized +$48 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown8%max

Avg bet$213per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+0.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+11.2%	+0.6%	50%	50%	+0.5%
≤30d	2	+11.2%	+0.6%	50%	50%	+0.5%
≤90d	2	+11.2%	+0.6%	50%	50%	+0.5%
all	2	+11.2%	+0.6%	50%	50%	+0.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+0.6%	50%	+0.5%
10%	-9.0%	50%	-9.1%
15%	-17.8%	0%	-17.9%
20%	-25.9%	0%	-26.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +11% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$4 · ×13.27 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×13.27 per $1 lost it wins $13.27

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$244

Realized+$48

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$213

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown8%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	82¢	82¢	$242	$244	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$196	+$47	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$200	−$4	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	82¢	$244	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$244	1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	80¢	$196	4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	70¢	$196	4h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	70¢	$200	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.77 · official $243.77 (match) · 5 history records