Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

D2 0xd2d0…bfaa other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$589 (+20%) realized +$716 · open −$127

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%11W / 14L

Drawdown60%max

Avg bet$104per market

Trades / day5.3pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit21%portable

Net worth$273now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-6.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	25	+3.1%	-6.7%	44%	44%	+8.5%
≤30d	25	+3.1%	-6.7%	44%	44%	+8.5%
≤90d	25	+3.1%	-6.7%	44%	44%	+8.5%
all	25	+3.1%	-6.7%	44%	44%	+8.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.3 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.7%	44%	+8.5%
10%	-15.6%	32%	-1.9%
15%	-23.8%	28%	-11.4%
20%	-31.3%	20%	-20.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 31% · top 2 55% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -50% → late +52% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$120 vs −$59 · ×2.04 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$273

Realized+$716

Unrealized−$127

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses11 / 14

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions3

Markets (closed)25 / 28

History coverage6d

Avg bet$104

Trades / day5.3

Drawdown60%

Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 25 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	70¢	$100	$104	+$4 (+4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	44¢	16¢	$200	$70	−$130 (-65%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$201	+$24	+12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$202	+$88	+44%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$51	−$50	-97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	Jun 21	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$82	−$80	-97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$51	+$403	+785%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$202	+$106	+52%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$15	−$15	-97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Jun 20	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$51	+$149	+291%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$233	+$28	+12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$101	+$77	+76%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	Jun 19	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$305	+$320	+105%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$27	−$26	-98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$20	+$7	+32%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$201	−$200	-99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$90	+$18	+20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$200	+$96	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	44¢	$203	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$101	12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	12¢	$51	21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	89¢	$201	21h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	21¢	$102	24h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	12¢	$82	24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$202	24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	5¢	$15	28h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$202	43h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	21¢	$51	43h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$51	43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$128	2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$51	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	89¢	$105	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	56¢	$101	2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$51	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$305	3d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	21¢	$27	3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	75¢	$20	4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	9¢	$21	4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	19¢	$20	4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$10	4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$201	4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$103	4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	83¢	$90	5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$200	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $273.32 · official $273.32 (match) · 40 history records