Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2ce…922f weather 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%103W / 8L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$4
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 100 -1.1% -10.5% 98% 0% -9.4%
all 111 -0.9% -10.4% 93% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.38 per $1 lost it wins $3.38
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses103 / 8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage120d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $82 $82 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? Jun 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $83 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 20 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? Jun 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $61 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? Jun 09 $73 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? Jun 06 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 04 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 2? Jun 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 2? Jun 02 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 31? Jun 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 32°C on May 31? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on May 30? May 31 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on May 29? May 30 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on May 29? May 30 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on May 29? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 28? May 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 28? May 29 $79 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 28? May 28 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $114 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 18? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on May 25? May 26 $109 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C or higher on May 23? May 24 $52 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 21? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 20? May 21 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on May 17? May 20 $111 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $38 22m
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $82 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $36 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $83 16h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $84 35h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $35 39h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $117 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $117 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $117 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $116 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $117 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $41 7d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $57 8d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $61 8d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $97 8d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $20 9d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $99 9d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $117 10d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $116 11d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C or below on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $116 11d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $44 12d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $73 12d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $115 14d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $116 14d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $115 15d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $115 16d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $115 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? BUY No 99¢ $114 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.33 · official $119.33 (match) · 226 history records