Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D2 0xd2ca…fd7e sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$130 (+29%) realized +$106 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$35
other 39% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +21.0% +9.5% 70% 70% +18.0%
≤30d 10 +21.0% +9.5% 70% 70% +18.0%
≤90d 10 +21.0% +9.5% 70% 70% +18.0%
all 10 +21.0% +9.5% 70% 70% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.5% 70% +18.0%
10% -1.0% 60% +6.7%
15% -10.6% 60% -3.6%
20% -19.3% 60% -13.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$16 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.59 per $1 lost it wins $3.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$106
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 92¢ $31 $55 +$24 (+76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 +$48 +60%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 −$2 -3%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $31 −$22 -70%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $32 +$17 +52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$43 +84%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $35 +$4 +11%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$24 +60%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $25 +$15 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $32 1h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 82¢ $50 6h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 84¢ $51 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $81 7h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 57¢ $22 28h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 56¢ $11 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $21 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 51¢ $9 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 48¢ $10 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $41 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 32h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 51¢ $10 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 32h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $25 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 90¢ $35 2d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $40 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.65 · official $54.65 (match) · 26 history records