Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:43:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D2 0xd2ca…506a crypto 2349 markets active 3d ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$275 (-9%) realized −$275 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%1084W / 622L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day118.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$276
7 days−$153
14 days+$94
30 days+$209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$486
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 326 +25.6% +13.6% 66% 66% -33.6%
≤30d 1706 +26.4% +14.3% 64% 63% -1.7%
≤90d 1706 +26.4% +14.3% 64% 63% -1.7%
all 1706 +26.4% +14.3% 64% 63% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +14.3% 63% -1.7%
10% ← realistic here +3.4% 63% -11.1%
15% -6.6% 63% -19.7%
20% -15.8% 63% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +34% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$275
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1084 / 622
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1706 / 2349
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day118.1
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1706 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records