Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D2 0xd2ca…3abf sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-14%) realized −$74 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%6W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days−$29
14 days−$79
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$44
sports 45% −$3
world 5% −$30
weather 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -9.0% -17.7% 21% 21% -15.1%
≤30d 32 -17.5% -25.4% 19% 19% -25.9%
≤90d 32 -17.5% -25.4% 19% 19% -25.9%
all 32 -17.5% -25.4% 19% 19% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 19% -25.9%
10% -32.5% 19% -32.9%
15% -39.1% 19% -39.4%
20% -45.0% 19% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -53% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$10 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses6 / 26
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage7d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-5%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 −$1 -5%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$18 +172%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $20 +$25 +123%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 +$72 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$14 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $56 −$10 -18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$12 -57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $50 −$2 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$17 +162%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $19 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 2h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 19h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O BUY 18¢ $10 19h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 19h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 19h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $28 20h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 36¢ $10 21h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $45 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 44¢ $20 23h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 35h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 21¢ $6 43h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $5 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $44 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.59 · official $86.59 (match) · 55 history records