Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D2 0xd2ca…9eb6 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$532 (-88%) realized −$383 · open −$149
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$488
sports 17% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$110 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$383
Unrealized−$149
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage10d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $66 −$65 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $122 −$120 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $249 −$243 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $66 24h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $44 10d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.13 · official $1.13 (match) · 9 history records