Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:51:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D2 0xd2c8…c1f2 sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$14 (+5%) realized +$14 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip

Net edge-8%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown19%max

Avg bet$89per market

Trades / day2.6pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-7.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+1.8%	-7.9%	50%	0%	-5.8%
≤30d	2	+1.8%	-7.9%	50%	0%	-5.8%
≤90d	2	+1.8%	-7.9%	50%	0%	-5.8%
all	2	+1.8%	-7.9%	50%	0%	-5.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.6 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.9%	0%	-5.8%
10%	-16.7%	0%	-14.8%
15%	-24.8%	0%	-23.1%
20%	-32.1%	0%	-30.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$10 vs −$2 · ×5.33 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×5.33 per $1 lost it wins $5.33

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$65

Realized+$14

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage2d

Avg bet$89

Trades / day2.6

Drawdown19%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom Rise of Legends Close Qualifiers	FORZE Esports	57¢	57¢	$65	$65	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
ITF Gyula: Mate Valkusz vs Pietro Fellin	Jun 19	$56	−$2	-3%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers	Jun 18	$145	+$10	+7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
ITF Gyula: Mate Valkusz vs Pietro Fellin	BUY Mate Valkusz	51¢	$56	1h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom	BUY FORZE Esports	57¢	$66	1h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers	SELL LG Twins	57¢	$155	20h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers	BUY LG Twins	52¢	$145	38h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.41 · official $65.41 (match) · 5 history records