Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:44:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D2 0xd2c6…ebad politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%3W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% $0
other 20% $0
sports 10% $0
economics 10% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -0.0% -9.5% 18% 0% -9.5%
all 19 -0.0% -9.5% 16% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses3 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage118d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $167 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $83 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 28 $83 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 12 $83 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $84 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $84 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $85 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $85 $0 +0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $85 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $85 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 10 $85 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $85 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 02 $85 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $83 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $83 12h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $83 10d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $83 10d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $83 22d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 23d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $0 23d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $0 23d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 23d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $0 23d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $74 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $83 31d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $83 31d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $83 41d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $83 41d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $83 46d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $83 47d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $83 52d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $83 53d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $84 73d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $84 74d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 75d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 76d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $84 80d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $84 81d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $84 82d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 82d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $85 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 60 history records